{"id":13960,"date":"2021-07-08T12:26:04","date_gmt":"2021-07-08T12:26:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.evropskakuca.me\/?p=13960"},"modified":"2021-07-08T12:26:04","modified_gmt":"2021-07-08T12:26:04","slug":"ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.evropskakuca.me\/me\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\/","title":{"rendered":"Ponovno otvaranje gorivo oporavka"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prognozira se da c\u0301e se evropska ekonomija oporaviti br\u017ee nego \u0161to se ranije o\u010dekivalo, jer su aktivnosti u prvom kvartalu godine prema\u0161ile o\u010dekivanja, a pobolj\u0161ana zdravstvena situacija podstakla je br\u017ee ubla\u017eavanje ograni\u010denja pandemijske kontrole u \u200b\u200bdrugom kvartalu.<\/p>\n

Br\u017ei ekonomski rast kako se ekonomije ponovo otvaraju i pokazatelji predvi\u0111anja ja\u010daju<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prema privremenoj ekonomskoj prognozi za ljeto 2021. godine, privreda u EU i eurozoni treba da poraste za 4,8% ove godine i 4,5% 2022. U pore\u0111enju sa prethodnom proljec\u0301nom prognozom, stopa rasta za 2021. godinu je znatno vec\u0301a u EU (+0,6 pps.) i eurozoni (+0,5 pps.), dok je za 2022. godinu ne\u0161to vec\u0301i u obije oblasti (+0,1 pp.). Realni BDP c\u0301e se vratiti na nivo prije krize u posljednjem kvartalu 2021. godine, kako u EU, tako i u eurozoni. Za euro zonu je ovo \u010detvrtinu ranije nego \u0161to se o\u010dekivalo u proljec\u0301noj prognozi.<\/p>\n

O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e rast oja\u010dati zbog nekoliko faktora. Prvo, aktivnost u prvom kvartalu godine prema\u0161ila je o\u010dekivanja. Drugo, efikasna strategija suzbijanja virusa i napredak u vakcinaciji doveli su do pada broja novih infekcija i hospitalizacija, \u0161to je zauzvrat omoguc\u0301ilo dr\u017eavama \u010dlanicama EU da ponovo otvore svoje ekonomije u narednom kvartalu. Ovo ponovno otvaranje je posebno koristilo preduzec\u0301ima iz uslu\u017enog sektora. Rezultati optimisti\u010dnih anketa me\u0111u potro\u0161a\u010dima i preduzec\u0301ima, kao i mobilnost za prac\u0301enje podataka, sugeri\u0161u da je sna\u017ean oporavak privatne potro\u0161nje vec\u0301 u toku. Pored toga, postoje dokazi o o\u017eivljavanju turisti\u010dkih aktivnosti unutar EU, \u0161to bi trebalo da ima koristi od uvo\u0111enja nove EU digitalne COVID potvrde od 1. jula. O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e ovi faktori zajedno nadma\u0161iti negativni uticaj privremene nesta\u0161ice sirovina i rastuc\u0301ih tro\u0161kova koji poga\u0111aju dijelove proizvodnog sektora.<\/p>\n

O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e privatna potro\u0161nja i investicije biti glavni pokreta\u010di rasta, podr\u017eani zapo\u0161ljavanjem za koje se o\u010dekuje da c\u0301e se kretati zajedno sa ekonomskom aktivno\u0161c\u0301u. Sna\u017ean rast glavnih trgovinskih partnera EU trebao bi biti od koristi izvozu robe iz EU, dok c\u0301e izvoz usluga patiti od preostalih ograni\u010denja za me\u0111unarodni turizam.<\/p>\n

O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e Mehanizam za oporavak i otpornost (RRF) dati zna\u010dajan doprinos rastu. O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e ukupno bogatstvo generisano RRF-om tokom prognoziranog horizonta iznositi pribli\u017eno 1,2% realnog BDP-a EU za 2019. godinu. O\u010dekivana veli\u010dina njegovog impulsa rasta ostaje pribli\u017eno nepromijenjena u odnosu na prethodnu prognozu, jer informacije iz planova oporavka i otpornosti, zvani\u010dno dostavljene poslednjih mjeseci, u velikoj mjeri potvr\u0111uju procjenu donijetu na proljec\u0301e.<\/p>\n

Stope inflacije su ne\u0161to vec\u0301e, ali opadaju 2022. godine<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prognoza inflacije za ovu i narednu godinu tako\u0111e je revidirana u vec\u0301oj mjeri. O\u010dekuje se da c\u0301e ove godine rast cijena energije i roba, uska grla u proizvodnji zbog ograni\u010denja kapaciteta i nedostatka nekih ulaznih komponenti i sirovina, kao i velika potra\u017enja kod kuc\u0301e i u inostranstvu, vr\u0161iti pritisak na potro\u0161a\u010dke cijene. 2022. ovi pritisci bi trebalo postepeno da se ubla\u017eavaju kako se rje\u0161avaju proizvodna ograni\u010denja i konvergiraju ponuda i potra\u017enja.<\/p>\n

Shodno tome, inflacija u EU sada se predvi\u0111a da c\u0301e ove godine u prosjeku iznositi 2,2% (+0,3 pps). U pore\u0111enju sa proljec\u0301nom prognozom) i 1,6% 2022. (+0,1 pps). U eurozoni se predvi\u0111a da c\u0301e inflacija u prosjeku iznositi 1,9% 2021. godine (+ 0,2 pps.) I 1,4% 2022. godine (+ 0,1 pps.).<\/p>\n

Zna\u010dajni rizici<\/p>\n

Neizvjesnost i rizici u vezi sa izgledima za rast su visoki, ali ostaju u cjelini uravnote\u017eeni.<\/p>\n

Rizici koje predstavlja pojava i \u0161irenje varijanti virusa COVID-19 podvla\u010de va\u017enost daljeg ubrzanja kampanja vakcinacije. Ekonomski rizici se posebno odnose na odgovor domac\u0301instava i preduzec\u0301a na promjene u ograni\u010denjima.<\/p>\n

Inflacija mo\u017ee ispasti vi\u0161a od prognozirane ako su ograni\u010denja u ponudi postojanija i ako se pritisci cijena sna\u017enije prenesu na potro\u0161a\u010dke cijene.<\/p>\n

Pozadina<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ova prognoza se zasniva na skupu tehni\u010dkih pretpostavki u vezi sa deviznim kursevima, kamatnim stopama i cijenama roba sa grani\u010dnim datumom 26. juna. Za sve ostale dolazne podatke, uklju\u010dujuc\u0301i pretpostavke o vladinim politikama, ova prognoza uzima u obzir informacije do i uklju\u010dujuc\u0301i 28. jun. Ako se nove politike ne pouzdaju i ne objave dovoljno detaljno, predvi\u0111anja ne podrazumijevaju promjene politike.<\/p>\n

Evropska komisija svake godine objavljuje dvije sveobuhvatne prognoze (proljec\u0301e i jesen) i dvije privremene prognoze (zima i ljeto). Privremene prognoze pokrivaju godi\u0161nji i kvartalni BDP i inflaciju za tekuc\u0301u i narednu godinu za sve dr\u017eave \u010dlanice, kao i agregate EU i eurozone.<\/p>\n

Sljedec\u0301a ekonomska prognoza Evropske komisije bic\u0301e ekonomska prognoza za jesen 2021. koja treba da bude objavljena u novembru 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomska prognoza za ljeto 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37180,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[287,283],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-koronavirusa","category-novosti-me"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPonovno otvaranje gorivo oporavka - Europe House<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.evropskakuca.me\/me\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ponovno otvaranje gorivo oporavka - Europe House\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ekonomska prognoza za ljeto 2021\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.evropskakuca.me\/me\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Europe House\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/evropska.kuca\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-08T12:26:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.evropskakuca.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/prognoza_za_sajt.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"750\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"375\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"mkajic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@evropska_kuca\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@evropska_kuca\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"mkajic\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"mkajic\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a1d0dcdaefe4a1cd1d60d200ea137ba4\"},\"headline\":\"Ponovno otvaranje gorivo oporavka\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-08T12:26:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":806,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/08\\\/prognoza_za_sajt.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Koronavirusa\",\"Novosti\"],\"inLanguage\":\"me-ME\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.evropskakuca.me\\\/me\\\/ponovno-otvaranje-gorivo-oporavka\\\/\",\"name\":\"Ponovno otvaranje gorivo oporavka - 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